Explain It Like I'm Five: Ukraine-Russia Crisis

Over 100,000 Russian troops are on the eastern border of Ukraine. 

The United States is sending its troops to nearby European countries in the region. Germany says it won't let the US and others transport weapons over the country to support the Ukrainians, and the US department is alleging that the Russians are planning a fake operation to create a situation where it can invade Ukraine.

This sounds like the beginning of a movie that came out in the 1980s, but it’s happening today and it has been called the biggest European security crisis since the end of the cold war.

Why does Russia care so much about Ukraine?

Before the Soviet Union broke apart in 1989, it was the largest country by landmass in the world and it rivaled the United States with the size of its military and strength of its economy. It was a country comprised of many states - similar to the US today - one of which was Ukraine. When the Soviet Union collapsed, many of these states became new, independent countries. Some of them remained closely tied to the Russian government and others did not. Many of the states that wanted to break ties with Russia, instead wanted a relationship with European countries and America in order to establish new ways of organizing an economy and political system.

Today, Russia is a poor country relative to most of its European neighbors but it still wants to see itself as an important one globally. Its current President, Vladimir Putin, wants to influence countries that used to be in the Soviet Union - those former states - to act like Russia economically and militarily. This is partially why, in 2014, Russia invaded a portion of Ukraine that had a lot of Russian speakers (Russia said they were protecting Russian populations in Ukraine from the Ukrainian government). Now, Europe, Ukraine, and America believe that Russia may invade Ukraine both to extend its power further into Ukraine but also as a way for Putin to look strong - in the eyes of the Russian people (who historically respect powerful leadership) and on the global stage.

Why would European countries and the US go to war over Ukraine?

After World War II, the United States and Europe formed a treaty called NATO. This treaty says that if someone attacks one of us, they attack all of us. NATO has added new countries to its members-only club over the past several years; most of them near the border with Russia. Russia sees this as a threat because they now have an alliance of their biggest rivals - the US  US and Europe - right on its border. This limits Russia's ability to influence its neighbors and former Soviet Union states. 

Ukraine says it wants to be a part of the NATO club eventually to protect itself from Russia, but the US and the EU have been slow to approve it. Largely because of the risk it poses: if Ukraine was in NATO in 2014, for example, it may have deterred Russia from invading Crimea - but if Russia had invaded anyways with Ukraine as part of NATO, it could have started WW III. What happens next?

The US government has said that it thinks that Russia will make up a reason to invade Ukraine. This could look a lot of different ways, like having Russian agents disguised as Ukrainians carry out attacks on Russian targets, or just flat out faking videos of things that could start a war. 

Ukraine isn’t so sure, but they say they’re ready to defend themselves. 

For Russian President Putin to be seen as powerful, he may feel like he needs to get something out of this and he is trying to get NATO countries to say they won’t accept Ukraine into the club ever in the future, which the US is refusing to do. At the same time, lots of European countries just want to avoid a conflict and don’t really care about Ukraine's independence all that much and want to see some sort of compromise.

Want to go deeper?

Putin’s Calculus Over Ukraine - Foreign Policy

-What is Putin trying to accomplish and what does he have to work with?

Why Ukraine’s President is Talking Down the Threat from Russia - Economist

-Why do the Ukranian’s not seem to share the US’ level of confidence in an invasion?

Nord Stream 2: How Does the Pipeline fit into the Ukraine-Russia Crisis?

-Europeans import natural gas from Russia and a new pipeline is about to deliver fuel to Europe which will certainly factor into EU negotiations with Russia.